14,942 BTC leave exchanges as Bitcoin gains ahead of Fed decision

On-chain data reveals that a net outflow of approximately 14,942 BTC occurred from exchanges, marking the largest daily withdrawal in five weeks, just before the Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday.

Bitcoin's price has surpassed $80,000, showing a gain exceeding 1% within the last 24 hours, as traders evaluate fluctuating ETF demand, improving exchange flows, and geopolitical uncertainties preceding the central bank's interest rate determination. Market data from crypto.news indicated BTC was trading near $80,800, having fluctuated between $79,416 and $81,159 during the preceding day. The trading volume was around $23.5 billion, while its total market capitalization remained above $1.62 trillion. Despite this upward movement, Bitcoin has yet to achieve $82,000, meaning the most recent increase is not a confirmed breakout.

This recovery followed a challenging week for institutional interest, although the substantial withdrawals from exchanges and the return to positive ETF inflows offered some underlying support. Concurrently, fresh reports concerning potential U.S. military action against Iran have introduced another layer of instability into financial markets.

Institutional flows improved on October 26 following two consecutive days of significant withdrawals from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, with the attracted funds totaling about $110.3 million, largely channeled through BlackRock's IBIT. This rebound occurred subsequent to combined outflows amounting to roughly $773.5 million on October 22 and 23, where the first day saw $635.6 million leave. While crypto.news detailed Bitcoin's decline, these withdrawals coincided with rising worries regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook and leveraged liquidations. Furthermore, SoSoValue data from October 27 indicated a smaller net inflow of approximately $24.54 million, suggesting that institutional interest remained inconsistent. The cumulative inflows reached nearly $57.32 billion, yet daily purchases had not consistently rebounded from the outflows of the prior week.

On-chain metrics presented a contrasting narrative; Santiment noted that a net outflow of roughly 14,942 BTC had exited exchanges, representing the biggest daily outflow in five weeks. The analytics firm interpreted these withdrawals as a potential indication of diminished immediate selling pressure leading up to the Fed announcement. Nevertheless, exchange movements alone cannot confirm whether holders intend to accumulate, as transfers might involve changes in custody or transactions across different platforms.

The Federal Reserve's policy announcement scheduled for October 28 remains the primary event for cryptocurrency traders, with focus centered on interest rates and comments from Chair Kevin Warsh on inflation. In addition to the Fed decision, investors are facing the release of third-quarter U.S. GDP figures, September personal consumption expenditures inflation data, and earnings reports from major technology firms, as detailed in the weekly economic calendar. Market expectations point toward policymakers maintaining the federal funds target range at 3.75%–4.00%, following the quarter-point hike in September. Commentary suggesting another rate hike in December could negatively impact speculative assets, whereas guidance indicating less restriction might bolster Bitcoin's recovery.

Julio Moreno, who heads research at CryptoQuant, reported that Bitcoin's spot demand continued to shrink throughout October as U.S. investors remained largely inactive. He stated that the firm's Bull Score Index had dropped from 90 down to 60, signaling less favorable market conditions. Moreno summarized the situation by noting that "Uptober" was disappointing because: "Spot demand continued to contract, while US investors remained mostly on the sidelines." Additionally, he pointed out that "Trader's took profits, while there's still gains to be realized," and that "Overall conditions became less bullish (Bull Score Index down from 90 to 60)."

Moreno also identified the 365-day moving average at $77,585, the realized price at $74,041, and the 200-day moving average at $73,028 as levels requiring attention should the market weaken. Geopolitical developments have complicated the market outlook following reports of preparations for possible renewed military action against Iran. A Wall Street Journal report dated October 28 stated that U.S. officials alerted several Gulf nations about the likelihood of a brief military campaign following the November 3 midterm elections. This report mentioned military preparations involving air-defense systems and regional forces, though no final decision to launch strikes had been made public. These events have brought renewed concerns regarding oil prices and potential inflationary pressure. Higher energy costs could complicate expectations for future Federal Reserve policy, particularly if tensions lead to sustained increases in crude oil prices.

Bitcoin's reaction remains uncertain. While some investors view the cryptocurrency as an alternative asset during periods of geopolitical unrest, recent trading patterns have demonstrated sensitivity to fluctuations in liquidity, interest rates, and the appetite for financial risk. Technically, Bitcoin's daily structure suggests caution, even after its recovery above $80,000. Chart analysis places BTC near $80,915, which is below its nine-day moving average of $81,416 and its 21-day moving average of $81,905. Because the shorter moving average is situated beneath the longer one, the chart maintains a bearish crossover. The Relative Strength Index is currently at 45.52, which is below the neutral 50 level, indicating that buying momentum has not fully returned.

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital highlighted $81,400 as a significant three-day closing level after Bitcoin lost it as support. A failure to regain this area could solidify its role as resistance, whereas a sustained climb would strengthen the argument for testing the $82,000–$82,500 range. Immediate support is situated near $80,000, with $78,000 and $76,000 serving as subsequent support levels if selling resumes. A move above the short-term moving averages could draw $84,202 into focus, with stronger resistance anticipated around $86,000.

Separately, analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that Bitcoin registered negative returns in the fourth quarter during the three preceding U.S. midterm election years: 2014, 2018, and 2022. The performance during Q4 in those recent U.S. midterm election years has been notable: 2014: -16.70%; 2018: -42.16%; 2022: -14.75%. Bitcoin has experienced a negative Q4 in each of the last three midterm election years. These historical observations describe past performance and do not guarantee that Bitcoin will follow the same trend in 2026.

Disclosure: This article does not constitute investment advice. The content and materials presented on this page are intended solely for educational purposes.