$80,000 Bitcoin hovers as Fed decision draws closer on October 27

The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at a range of 3.75%–4.00% on October 28, while two officials advocated for an additional quarter-point increase, as Bitcoin traded near $80,800.

The committee's October statement indicated that economic expansion was robust and that inflation remained elevated, while policymakers noted the resilience of domestic spending, strong capital investment, and minimal change in unemployment. The committee stated that further data would assist in determining the appropriate policy stance to guide inflation back to its targeted 2% level in a timely fashion, asserting, “The Committee will deliver price stability.” This October outcome followed a unanimous decision on September 16 to raise rates by 25 basis points; all twelve voters supported that prior increase, which brought the benchmark range to its current setting, according to the September statement. The September declaration characterized economic activity as expanding at a “solid pace,” whereas the October wording shifted this description to a “strong pace,” though both statements maintained the central bank's commitment to keeping ample reserves within the banking system.

Prior to the announcement, KPMG’s preview meeting on October 22 predicted an unchanged rate and a hike in December, anticipating a unanimous hold but noting a possibility of one dissent favoring higher rates; the actual decision, however, resulted in two such objections. KPMG economists suggested that pauses between quarter-point adjustments would grant officials time to evaluate financial conditions, employment, and inflation, noting their preview characterized the difficulty as tightening policy without causing issues in markets already facing higher borrowing costs and elevated long-term yields. Their December forecast remained merely an expectation, not a formally announced Fed decision.

At the time of checking, the market panel reporting on October 28 showed Bitcoin at $80,771, representing a 0.47% increase over 24 hours, with its daily trading range spanning from $80,334 to $81,636. Earlier in the day, crypto.news reported that Bitcoin had surpassed $80,000 but remained beneath its short-term moving averages, with the nine-day average positioned at $81,416 and the 21-day average at $81,905. Citing analyst Rekt Capital, the report suggested that Bitcoin would require regaining $81,400, a three-day closing level, to serve as support, projecting a recovery scenario between $82,000–$82,500 above that point, potentially leading to a move toward $84,202. The same analysis cited $80,000 as immediate support, with levels of $78,000 and $76,000 noted below it; these levels originated from analysis published before the Fed announcement, not from a new evaluation following the decision.

HashKey Group senior researcher Tim Sun previously pointed to Treasury yields, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund flows, and derivatives leverage as the primary factors to monitor around the Fed’s subsequent decision. In comments released on September 29, Sun remarked that a second consecutive rate increase could cause investors to interpret September’s rise as the start of continuous tightening, adding that increased long-term yields and tighter dollar liquidity might dampen demand, while leveraged positions could influence the magnitude of Bitcoin's reaction. Sun’s commentary preceded Wednesday’s rate hold, and his assessment linked sustained ETF inflows to potential support for Bitcoin, cautioning that excessive derivatives leverage could leave the market vulnerable should circumstances shift.

Using Farside Investors’ daily totals, an assessment from October 17 documented that net withdrawals from U.S. spot Bitcoin funds totaled $614.7 million across the first 12 trading sessions of October, illustrating the unevenness of individual sessions: $175.7 million entered on October 13, followed by $261.4 million in withdrawals on October 14. This report further noted that fund-flow totals are subject to revision and do not equate directly to spot purchases on the same day.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ September report indicated that annual consumer inflation stood at 3.7%, an increase from 3.4% recorded in August. On a seasonally adjusted basis, consumer prices rose by 0.6% during the month, following a 0.4% increase in August. According to the agency, gasoline prices climbed 9.1% in September, contributing over half of the monthly rise in the headline index; when excluding food and energy, prices increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year. In a separate measure, the Fed’s September economic projections projected median PCE inflation at 3.7% for 2026 and 2.3% for 2027, where these projections reflect fourth-quarter changes compared to the prior year, whereas the September CPI reading covers the preceding 12 months. The September projections also placed the median year-end federal funds rate at 4.1% for both 2026 and 2027, contrasting with June forecasts of 3.8% and 3.6%, respectively, which the Fed describes as participants’ individual evaluations of suitable policy. Furthermore, the September projections estimated median real GDP growth at 2.3% in 2026, an increase from 2.2% in June, and unemployment at 4.1%, down from 4.3%, while participants forecasted core PCE inflation at 3.4%, compared to their earlier 3.3% projection.

Regarding implementation under October, the interest paid on reserve balances remains at 3.90%, effective October 29. The rate for standing overnight repurchase operations is 4.00%, and overnight reverse repurchase operations carry an offering rate of 3.75% with a daily limit of $160 billion per counterparty.